Stat Check Meta Report - July 2023
By Innes Wilson
Welcome back all to the Stat Check Meta Report for July 2023! It's certainly been a while since one of these has been published, so if you need a refresher on the methodology under the hood, please do check out the first article which has all the information you need: Stat Check Meta Report Primer
Since the last meta report, we've grown to a team of 7 here at Stat Check with Innes Wilson, Jeremy Atkinson, Anthony Vanella, Cliff Thomas, Nathan Henning, Tim Pinney, and Piotr "Typhus" now contributing to the player rankings.
We took a break publishing these due to the large scale changes before the December edition was due to be published, and then a waning interest in coverage for the 9th edition competitive scene. With a renewed interest across the board, expect to see these once a month for the foreseeable future here at Stat Check
Without further ado then, here is the first Meta Report of 10th edition for your viewing pleasure!
Meta Breakdown:
1: Aeldari
Win Rate - #1 (70.0%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #2 (3.31x)
Event Wins - #1 (20 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #1
Well, it’s never good when there’s that many ones with an army’s data. Eldar do it all. I’m sure nobody is surprised to see them at the top, the elves have access to the best shooting in the game (units like Wraithknights, Wraithguard, Fire Prisms), some of the highest resilience (units like Wraithknights, Wraithguard, War Walkers - especially backed by a Farseer with Fortune), and best in class scoring that also shoots.
Phantasm is capable of breaking the game wide open single handedly and might just be the best stratagem ever printed. The Eldar index is already proving wildly adaptable with myriad different builds, and units that would be ubiquitous in other factions are barely making the cut due to how competitive your 2000 points are.
Key Units - Wraithknight, Wraithguard, Farseer, Warp Spiders, Shadow Specters, Nightspinner, Fire Prism, The Yncarne, Autarch Wayleaper.. (list cut short for sanity purposes)
2: Genestealer Cults
Winrate - #2 (65.1%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #1 (3.48x)
Event Wins - #2 (7 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #2
Genestealer Cults are one of the few (the only) factions that has a positive winrate into the Aeldari menace at 60%, and while it is a little weaker against the field, remains incredibly powerful. Genestealer Cults have incredible scoring especially when backed by 3” deep strike, high burst damage from Acolytes with Demolition Charges and lots of jank and consistency. Being able to return units to reserve and keep units alive at range in an edition where everything dies is a massive strength and makes them very difficult to address even before you consider that they don’t even have the grace to stay dead. Current lists are split on whether to include Abberants or not, and no archetype seems to have won out yet.
Pack as many Primuses, Nexoses, Reductres Saboteurs and your split of Acolytes/Neophytes into reserve as possible, drop down, win the game. If there’s models alive, repeat step 2.
Key Units - Acolytes with Demolition Charges, Neophytes, Primus, Nexos, Reductress Saboteur, Achilles Ridgerunner, Abberants
3: Imperial Knights
Win Rate - #3 (58.5%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #3 (1.31x)
Event Wins - #4 (3 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #4
Towering is pretty good, as it turns out. As the higher output version of the general “Towering” ecosystem, Imperial Knights and their re-rolls, resilience and highly applicable Bondsmen buffs have proven very efficient at getting almost all the way in events, typically before falling to a poor pairing into one of the other top armies. As one of only 3 armies above the 55% Winrate “Goldilocks Zone” but with by far the fewest event wins of them, Imperial Knights are at the peak of their gatekeeper list status, but have been able to convert some events.
Armigers are as efficient as ever, with a price reduction and general everything else increase in the edition change, and the omnipresent vision of the Towering Knights, many armies just cannot keep up with the wall of stats and damage that is presented here. Poor terrain (or just that which hasn’t had the opportunity to adapt to the new normal) also contributes a not insignificant amount to the power here, but hearing that “this wouldn’t happen on better terrain” is scant consolation to someone staring down a stationary Crusader.
Key Units - Crusader, Warden, Valiant, Canis Rex, Warglaive, Helverin, Castigator
4: Adeptus Custodes
Win Rate - #5 (53.6%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #6 (0.87x)
Event Wins - #4 (3 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #3
As the sole owners of the entire fight phase, the army of “Which 5 attack dudes do you like” is certainly out there passing 4+ Invulnerable saves like there is no tomorrow. And if they reach you? There might well not be. With a variety of reasonable options for units and leaders that mix up the formula just enough to resemble adaptation to the meta, the real choice here is whether you run the Caladius Grav-Tank or not. Adding very respectable ranged punch and moving away from the “Meat Mountain” style that won Tacoma affords positive matchups into the rest of the “upper middle” pack, but can hurt against the best, and doesn’t seem incredible in the mirror. Your mileage may vary, but the meta seems hesitant to confirm which is the best long term.
Note that Custodes are the strongest users of Imperial Agents going right now, with Assassins and Exaction Squads filling the holes left by the very similar units of Allarus/Wardens/Custodian Guard that are typically seen. Note that Custodes do fall a little below average on overrepresentation, notable mostly due to the size of the Custodes player population.
Key Units - Allarus Terminators, Wardens, Custodian Guard, Blade Champion, Shield Captain, Caladius, Callidus (I’m not confused, you’re confused), Exaction Squad
5: Necrons
Win Rate - #9 (48.7%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #4 (1.14x)
Event Wins - #6 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #5
Necrons are an odd ball here - they’re clearly capable of winning games, and anyone who has tried to kill a Transcendent C’tan with Sempiternal Weave, or 10 Lychguard backed by Cryptothralls, a Reanimator and a Technomancer will tell you. However it’s not converting into a super high overall win rate, or many event wins. With negative matchups into Eldar, Thousand Sons, Space Marines and Custodes among others, the top list population is very capable of dealing with the resilience of Necrons. This appears to create a clear have/have not line for the Necrons army where they’re falling into a gatekeeper role. If you can kill them, Necrons are little more than a stumbling block. If you can’t, that stumbling block becomes a brick wall. As Necron players lean more into the reasonable shooting options of Doomsday Arks and Lokhust Heavy Destroyers certainly more armies are having to respect them, and it remains to be seen if this will prove more fruitful than the sheer bricks of outsourcing in the long run.
Some are running higher damage variations of the list which eschew the Feel No Pain 5+ of the Technomancer for Orikan, who makes his squad deal a lot more damage with War Scythes and his 4+ Invulnerable save. If everyone can punch through the more resilient versions anyway, does the future hold just going for the damage and playing safer with at least one squad?
Key Units - Lychguard, Cryptothralls, Canoptek Reanimator, Overlord, Technomancer, Doomsday Ark, Lokhust Heavy Destroyer, Hexmark, Transcendent C’tan
6: Thousand Sons
Win Rate - #4 (54.1%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #7 (0.77x)
Event Wins - #6 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #6
With one of the top win rates right now including a crushing 70% record into Space Marines, the Thousand Sons are showing that having one trick, but doing it exceedingly well is enough to compete in the meta game. The ability to double move any unit with Temporal Surge, coupled with the raw damage output that the army can deal within 18” (or at disgusting ranges and ignoring line of sight with Magnus under the right circumstances), Thousand Sons are only really held down by their downright awful win rates into Eldar, Genestealer Cults and Custodes, who are holding down the meta and preventing a lot of diversity.
Rubric Marines with Sorcerers, Tzaangor Enlightened and daemonic allies like Flamers and the Lone Operative duo (Changeling and Blue Scribes) give you even more options for scoring and help raise the floor on the army a lot.
List choices here seem to center around whether you are pro-Mutalith Vortex Beast, pro-Terminator, both or neither. Adding in more rubrics, rhinos, support characters etc. ups the floor on the army by jamming in Cabal Points and more tricks and shenanigans. Adding subtlety always has its issues though, the raw stats and damage of the MVB and Terminators often ends games that might otherwise become sluggish affairs. You might only have one real trick for dealing damage, but you have a lot of ways to choose between when it comes to applying it.
Key Units - Magnus the Red, Rubric Marines, Scarab Occult Terminators, Mutaltith Vortex Beast, Infernal Master, Sorcerer, Exalted Sorcerer, Rhino, Tzaangor Enlightened
7: Tyranids
Win Rate - #6 (50.8%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #5 (1.05x)
Event Wins - #6 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #8
The Tyranids are as confused as you are! Biovores are very good at scoring, and a variety of strong options have shown up like the undercosted Exocrine, the surprisingly difficult to deal with horde options like Gargoyles and Termagants, and access to a lot of interesting options. Maintaining above a 50% win rate in this meta is incredibly impressive, and it suggests that Tyranids are being slept on a bit.
No real lists have coalesced here, as the army is still fairly unknown, but a core of Exocrines, Biovores, Gargoyles, Termagants and Zoanthropes seems fairly popular. Keep an eye on this space going forward and familiarise yourself with the options if you’re looking for an interesting underwrought option to mark your space in the edition.
Key Units - Exocrine, Maleceptor, Trygon, Zoanthropes, Biovores, Gargoyles, Termagants, Lictor, Hive Tyrant
8: Chaos Daemons
Win Rate - #7 (50.5%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #8 (0.75x)
Event Wins - #6 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #8
Greater Daemons save 50% of the time, Chaos Daemons win 50% of their games. Coincidence? We certainly aren’t willing to confirm or deny it here at Stat Check. Be’lakor is in basically 100% of lists and is very capable of carrying the army to within 18”, it’s between you and the dice to make that enough. Lords of Change, Skarbrand, Bloodthirsters, Kairos, Shalaxi. All fairly reasonable options working with a strong scoring backend of Nurglings, Flamers and Lone Operatives keeps the army ticking along. Strong enough to do well, but making few waves.
Key Units - Be’Lakor, Shalaxi, Lord of Change, Kairos Fateweaver, Nurglings, Flamers, The Changeling
9: Adeptus Astartes
Win Rate - #12 (44.3%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #16 (0.27x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #7
Marines have the distinct pleasure of being about 14 armies in one, of which maybe 3 are viable right now, but all are in play. This always dampens the Win Rate and Overrep of Marines. Deathwatch have shown that they have the pedigree for deep runs, and Bolter Discipline + Desolation Marines is enough to keep the army just around the top half, but hasn’t delivered any real results so far. Guilliman Castles have proven capable of getting close, but the meta boogeymen are always waiting for that go first roll. With good scoring and damage, Marines feel like they’re a couple of tweaks to the game away from breaking through, but the environment is very hostile at present.
Key Units - Desolation Marines, Gladiator Lancer, Deathwatch Veterans, Proteus Kill Teams, Inceptors, Scout Snipers, Roboute Guilliman
10: Chaos Space Marines
Win Rate - #8 (49.3%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #15 (0.27x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #10
Another reasonably mono build army, and dipping below 50% winrate at the 1/3rd mark is another indictment of the meta. Forgefiends and Obliterators can shoot just about anything off the board, and Abaddon and Terminators can lock down huge areas of the board with good counter charge options, but they’re trying to force a square peg into a round hole by outshooting the armies that are a little more designed for it. Running your 700 point unit straight into the guns remains a terrifying prospect. When things run right for CSM, they go very right. When your obliterators drop in, shoot indirect and never shoot again, it’s very much the opposite,
Key Units - Abaddon, Chaos Terminators, Forgefiends, Obliterators, Cypher, Cultists, Raptors
11: Orks
Win Rate - #11 (45.2x)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #9 (0.54x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #12
The Truck is very cheap, Zogrod can run Grots at you very fast, and Squighog boys deal incredible damage when they make it in. Again, it’s up to you to figure out how to make that happen. Playing a board control melee army is tough in a world where damage is as high as at current, and it’s a testament to how good Orks are at it that they’re punching just within the 45-55% zone in it. The fact that Flash Gitz might be the best non-character ork unit says a lot more to us here though.
Key Units - Flash Gitz, Trukk, Beast Snaggas, Mozrog, Zogrod, Squighog Boys
12: Chaos Knights
Win Rate - #10 (48.3%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #17 (0.23x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #11
Brigands shoot as hard as they come, and Karnivores are one of the few melee units not paying the combat tax. With Knights of Shade opening up the board, and the very high OC and output that the army can carry, Chaos Knights slide solidly into the middle of the pack. They struggle into the armies better than them (except Marines), and do very well into the weaker ones. Imperial Knights being as strong as they are also has a detrimental effect here as armies are planning for the more resilient Armiger Profile, as compared to the War Dog which lacks the Feel No Pain.
The Desecrator is the most interesting Towering Knight, combining a high variance shooting attack that keeps opponents honest, and a reasonable aura of Reroll 1s to hit, but it’s certainly not shown to be essential. As always with chaos, consider the Daemonic Allies package of Changeling, Nurglings, Blue Scribes etc, though we have seen Shalaxi on occasion, which seems a match made to frustrate opponents beyond belief.
Key Units - War Dog Stalkers, Brigands, Karnivores, Huntsmen, Knight Desecrator
=13: Astra Militarum
Win Rate - 15 (40.8x)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #14 (0.29x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #13
Indirect and flip it! The various Forgeworld Artillery pieces and infinitely respawning sentinels has given Guard a meta niche that they are doing okay in, marred by the size of the units and the general inability to push into opponents units like Lone Operative, guard hover around the 40% win rate into most pairings, excepting of course elves where they have just a 12% success rate.
Key Units - Ursula Creed, Lord Solar Leontus, Earthshaker Carriage, Medusa, Manticore, Scout Sentinel
=13: T’au Empire
Win Rate - 17 (38.7%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #13 (0.32x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #13
Tau benefit strongly from the general perception of the contributors that they are better than they appear in the stats. While no real lists have consolidated with any great success, the Crisis Suits + Exemplar of Kauyon Package, Broadsides, Tetras and myriad Lone Operatives allow Tau to play a lot of opponents fairly close, and more experimentation is probably warranted here.
Key Units - Crisis Suits, Broadsides, Tetras, Ghostkeel, Stealth Suits, Shadowsun
Beyond this point, abandon hope all ye who meta chase. Information is too scant on the following factions to provide any real analysis, and as such none is presented as we try not to draw conclusions based on too limited data. Keep an eye on these factions going forward, and if any begin to make waves in August, we’ll be back to cover it.
Innes’s First 10th Ed Event
15: Grey Knights
Win Rate - #19 (37.4%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #9 (0.54x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #14
16: Drukhari
Win Rate - #16 (40.8%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #11 (0.34x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #16
17: Adepta Sororitas
Win Rate - #14 (41.5%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #18 (0x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #17
18: World Eaters
Win Rate - #13 (41.5%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #18 (0x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #18
19: Death Guard
Win Rate - #20 (31.1%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #11 (0.34x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #20
20: Adeptus Mechanicus
Win Rate - #18 (38.4%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #18 (0x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #19
21: Leagues of Votann
Win Rate - #21 (28.0%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #18 (0x)
Event Wins - #7 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #21
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With that, we pass on to the month of August, With Warmasters and WTC, as well as the lead up to LGT, the meta seems fairly open in the middle tiers, and there may be room for movement for the weaker factions. Already rumblings of Grey Knights appear on the horizon. As always we look forward to seeing what the future holds.
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