Stat Check Meta Report - September 2022
Author: Innes Wilson
Hello everyone and welcome to the inaugural edition of the Stat Check Meta Report
We're going to start this edition of the tier list with a brief overview of what the methodology behind it is, before we get into the nitty gritty analysis.
Before that however, here is the September 2022 Edition of the Stat Check Meta Report Tier List
Now, I know what you're all saying: "Innes, isn't this all going to be outdated immediately once Votann and the Balance Dataslate come out?". Yes it is, and that is precisely why we pushed to get this one out for the end of September so that we have a point of reference for how much the meta changes next month.
With that in mind, here is a brief rundown of what each stat represents and why they were chosen:
Win-rate:
Each faction is ranked on win-rate in 25+ Player, 5+ Round Singles events. This is a singles tier list, so not including team events is a natural byproduct, however much it hurts me personally.
The focus on GT+ level play is intended to remove some of the inherent randomness of RTT level play, where often player bases are not large enough to generate meaningful results. The inclusion of this statistic allows us to capture the wider meta at all levels of GT play, whether Casual or Veteran.
Over-representation:
Over-rep is the ratio between expected Top 4 rate and actualised Top 4 rate based on a given faction's playerbase. An example of this would be that if 10% of players on a given weekend are playing a faction, they should make up 10% of that weekend's Top 4s. If they make up 15%, that would be an overrep of 1.5x. This statistic is included to allow us to look at how well a faction converts on player base to top 4s. Some factions have large player bases and get lots of wins because of that, but actually less than expected for the size of their player base. Meanwhile, some factions *cough cough Harlequins* output a disproportionate amount of high placements despite a small playerbase.
Event Wins:
This metric allows us to look at the absolute peak of a faction, capacity to win events. While this statistic is weighted toward factions that have more players and stronger armies, these are relevant components in where an army exists in the competitive frame and as such we find this a relevant inclusion.
Contributor Voting:
While stats are great and all, we also respect that the aggregate of performances does not always reflect the highest end of play. As such our contributors, (Innes, Anthony, Jeremy, Nathan and Cliff, as well as a special guest each month in future) will be voting each month on how we would personally rate each faction. This allows us to correct for things like new lists, broader regional meta calls and personal perceptions.
We provide each of the statistics a 20% weight, while the contributor voting has a combined 40% weight. This means that while our perceptions are more important than any individual statistic, the weight of stats on the whole creates a 3:2 split with perception and thus has a higher overall impact on the placements.
With that out of the way, now let's get into the analysis of the rankings:
1. Tyranids:
Tyranids come out on top of event wins, and second in win-rate/over-rep. Our contributors also have them in First overall. This army continues to move from strength to strength, winning the vast majority of events and games while being represented en masse at any relevant competitive event.
Key Lists: Leviathan Warriors, Kraken Raveners
2. Harlequins:
Harlequins have the highest overall win rate and come out near the top on all other statistics. Light Harlequins have proven they have the mobility and technology to score overwhelming wins against any army in the game while scoring high points off of great speed, redundancy and survivability despite the changes to Light.
Key Lists: Light Starweaver Rush
3. Necrons:
Off the back of the best set of secondaries in the game and huge output buffs from the changes to the Silent King, Necrons have solidified themselves as the third in our trifecta, and the only army besides Tyranids to receive a first place vote in contributor rankings.
Key Lists: Obsekh Rush, Novokh, C'Tan
4. Adepta Sororitas:
Another beneficiary of some fantastic secondaries in Warzone: Nephilim, Bloody Rose lists have moved from strength to strength despite being fairly mono-build. Rocking the third highest winrate in September, they remain a force to be reckoned with.
Key Lists: Bloody Rose Melee
5. Imperial Knights:
Appearing to be the long term winners of the IK/CK split due to the power of Bondsman Abilities and Calculated Targeting's ability to remove problems at will, they have proved a capacity to win tournaments and escape the gatekeeper role typically assigned to this faction.
Freeblade Lance provides a toolkit beyond any previously available to the faction, while Knight of Mars's auto 6 combined with Calculated Targeting can create brutal turns from Taranis.
Key Lists: Freeblade Lance 2/7 and 1/10, Taranis 2/7 and 1/10
6. Chaos Space Marines:
New to the meta and putting up results across the board with a variety of new lists, Bile, Abaddon and Emperor's Children are putting up an above 50% win rate, while winning the second most events of the month.
Key Lists: Bile Possessed, Emperor's Children Noise Marines + Terminators, Word Bearers Possessed
7. T'au Empire:
T'au continues to put out solid results on a variety of terrains, though the measure of list varies heavily. From Oops all Crisis Suits, to non-interactive Riptides, T'au have shown a surprising variety of competitive lists, and while their win-rate is a little lower than some of the best factions, our personal rankings keep them near the top due to their high end competitive performance in the hands of the best players.
Key Lists: Oops, all Crisis!, Jump Shoot Jump, Farsight Enclaves Commander Control
8. Genestealer Cult:
Newly rejuvenated from dumpster tier through the innovations of Erik Lathouras' Bike List, Genestealer Cults not only won a major this month but have a very high 7th in Winrate which helps them to the bottom of the top half
Key Lists: Myriad Cults Atalan Spam, Twisted Helix Melee
9. Chaos Daemons:
Another new contender in the meta, we are starting to see the impact of Big Boy Time and Flamers with the fifth highest win rate of any faction, and third highest overrepresentation. While they have been unable to convert to a GT win this month, Chaos Daemons have all the tools and it's just a matter of time.
Key Lists: Big Boy Time + Flamers, Khorne Monster Mash
10. Craftworlds:
With a low contributor ranking of 14th overall, and the 16th highest win rate, but putting up good top 4s and still converting event wins, the very best and experienced players of craftworlds are clearly still putting up results to keep them in the top half of factions here.
Key Lists: Ynnari Melee, Hail of Doom, Ulthwe Indirect
11. Chaos Knights:
Stalkers and Karnivores are a hell of a datasheet, but weak big knights and poor shooting defences at long range keep Chaos Knights right around the middle.
Key Lists: Mass Herpetrax War Dogs
12. Thousand Sons:
Thousand Sons have shown to be extremely average across the board, and suffer from being a mono build that everyone has had time to respond to due to the unitary power of the codex being Scarab Occult Terminators
Key Lists: Scarab Occults Cult of Duplicity
13. Drukhari:
While Drukhari have some incredibly high performing lists such as Wrack Horde, they haven't seen broad strokes high level performances in a while. Being held up here by their middle of the road win rate and roughly even conversion rate on Top 4s, Drukhari have clearly fallen a way from their peak. Personally, I think if people play the Wrack Horde list a little more, we'll see a lot more top level placings there.
Key Lists: Good stuff, Army of Renown 180 Wracks
14. Orks:
Joining Drukhari in the "not exceedingly bad but a far fall from where they were", Orks are held up by the Get Da Good Bitz Secondary and the fact that they managed to convert an event win this month.
Key Lists: Goff Pressure
15. Adeptus Astartes:
Marines are always a difficult one to rank in things like this, as splitting them into all of their supplements makes the data near unusable. Instead they must be measured as all other factions, by their peak. In this case, this looks a lot like Blood Angels.
Space Marines are crippled by their terrible over-representation, putting up only 38% of the top 4’s that they should based on their player count, and their dire win rate.
Key Lists: Blood Angels Melee Rush, Iron Hands Good Stuff
16. Death Guard:
Sweeping Points drops to their weapons have not given Death Guard enough of a push to begin converting wins at events, the Plague Marine horde seems to have proven too one dimensional, and its secondaries too limiting with the army's speed to get them over the line.
Key Lists: Death Ball
17. Adeptus Custodes:
The 4th lowest win-rate in the game, the 3rd lowest over-rep. Custodes have a large player base from people who got into them while they were at the top of the meta, but the wider game seems to have left them behind. The new Dreads + Caladius list hasn't begun making waves in singles, but was effective enough to have a high contributor voting which pulls this faction out of the dregs.
Key Lists: Lennon Dread Spam + Caladius, Emperor's Chosen Good Stuff
18. Astra Militarum:
A surprisingly high 13th place in win-rate stops Guard from being all the way down at the bottom of the tier, but with 5 years of Baggage and many layers of rules, it's just not been enough to get them up there. Some players have put out some solid x-1 results in recent weeks, but not enough to raise the overall impression of the faction.
Key Lists: Tank Commander Datasheet: The Faction
19. Grey Knights:
Not quite falling the furthest of the Ex-Busted Factions, Grey Knights seem to lack any redeeming qualities in Nephilim, with shallow datasheets and weakened secondaries. We aren't even seeing much experimentation on this front.
Key Lists: ??
20. Adeptus Mechanicus:
How the mighty have fallen. With a 32% win rate and near universal low contributor rankings, Adeptus Mechanicus have nearly universally been abandoned by the player base. Unless your name is Richard Siegler, just don't bother.
Key Lists: Whatever Richard is playing this week
And that's us for this month folks. I hope you enjoyed the breakdown of the current factions and where we think they're at currently. We'll be back next month with the same data with hopefully Votann, a Balance Dataslate, LGT, and the GW Opens to talk about for a busy October.
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