Stat Check Meta Report - September 2023
By Innes Wilson
With a Balance Dataslate behind us and long months of big tournaments ahead (Like Tampa which is ongoing as we speak, the World Championships of Warhammer and the California Cup), September has been a litmus test for how improved this new world is. As we have data from both pre and post slate this month, expect to see things shake up even more over the next few weeks. Maybe someone will even dethrone Aeldari for the first time. Unfortunately the Yncarne will be there at the spot of death ruining your day, but we can’t have it all. As always, if you need an update on what we’re measuring and tracking here, or why we track the stats we do, check out the Stat Check Meta Report Primer.
We have a full 8 contributors on board this month, having added Pumba from Team Poland to the roster, it’s always fun to have a full house as it makes all the numbers nice and round. Anthony even went all out and put all the armies in order this time, instead of 1-2-3-4-5-All 21 like the last couple of times!
Meta Breakdown:
1: Aeldari (No Change)
Win Rate - #1 (62.6%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #1 (2.51x)
Event Wins - #1 (12 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #1
What more can be said about Eldar that hasn’t already been said?
Aeldari are still good, as it turns out. We saw some fairly reasonable points hits on important units, the Yncarne for example copped a monstrous 80pt price rise. And they’re still everywhere, still on top and still winning going forward. At least the Wraithknight isn’t around as much.
With the scope of changes, the points from the Wraithknight were mostly eaten up by points changes, but units like Fuegan for mid board bullying and Yncarne options, and more Night Spinners than before are filling the void. Swooping Hawks and Troupes have started appearing in numbers also, and we’re hearing rumblings of Fire Dragons in Falcons as a truly terrifying sign of the depth of that index. Don’t expect to see the needle moving much if at all on Aeldari any time soon.
Key Units - Wraithguard, Farseer, Warp Spiders, Shadow Specters, Night Spinner, Fire Prism, The Yncarne, Autarch Wayleaper, Fuegan, Swooping Hawks
2: Chaos Knights (+11)
Win Rate - #3 (51.7%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #3 (1.17x)
Event Wins - #4 (3 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #5
Big movers and shakers almost straight away this month. Chaos Knights have been sitting on a lot of players minds for a while, and the meta has finally seen fit for 12-13 War Dogs with our without Daemonic Support to take the world by storm. As Imperial Knights are taking a leave of abscense from the top tables, lists are also planning a little less for this kind of skew.
With 140+ wounds of T10 on the table it’s one hell of a stat check to overcome, and the combination of Stalker/5 or 6 Karnivore/5 or 6 Brigands has started to show it has what it takes to go the distance with 3 event wins this month and one of the highest overreps we’ve got this month. Start planning for big boy time if you want to have a chance of going all the way at an event, or they’re very prone to Knights of Shading all the way through the protections on your aspirations,
Key Units - War Dog Stalkers, Brigands, Karnivores, Huntsmen, Knight Rampager
3: Chaos Space Marines (+4)
Win Rate - #3 (51.7%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #3 (1.19x)
Event Wins - #4 (3 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #2
If there’s an army that has seen changes in their make up over the last month or so, it is Chaos Space Marines by a land slide. With an almost complete turnaround in the make up of the melee components of the roster, the Chosen + Rhinos and Chaos Lords list has exploded in popularity over the Terminator focussed builds of before. Accursed Cultists + Dark Communes are also seeing exploration and are starting to put some results on the table.
While the shooting profile of the army hasn’t changed (Forgefiends took a huge nerf on Devastating Wounds and saw a points hit and still remain one of the best shooting units in the game due to the Nurgle and Undivided buffs being phenomenal; and Obliterators move from strength to strength when supported by good melee), the Daemonic Allies have shaken up a little, with Syll’Esske growing in appearances to support the newly encheapened Warp Talons. It turns out that fast Combat is still good, especially in transports. Who could possibly have guessed? Chaos Space Marines will win the LGT in next month’s meta report, the biggest singles event of the Season, and cement themselves as a top tier contender.
Key Units - Chaos Lord, Forgefiends, Obliterators, Cultists, Raptors, Chosen, Warp Talons, Accursed Cultists, Dark Commune, Abaddon
4: Genestealer Cults (-2)
Winrate - #2 (55.2%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #5 (1.08x)
Event Wins - #9 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #7
Big hits here have taken Cults from an army at the top to an army near the top. With less recursion and some big points hits, Genestealer Cults continue to have a lot of options. However they also seem to have more exploitable weaknesses that were already starting to show up that are now exacerbated by having even less on the table than before at basicaly every stage of the game. Being vulnerable to units getting tapped in combat or losing units to heavy duty shooting or overwatch was already an issue, but with less physical prescence on the board, it’s a much tougher issue to overcome.
A particular loser of the changes was the Nexos, whos inability to double up on Rapid Ingress or 3” Deep Strike hits harder than most other changes to any faction have. Will they continue to fall going forward or will players rally behind the build and use all the diminished tools at their disposal to recover? Time will tell.
Key Units - Acolytes with Demolition Charges, Neophytes, Primus, Reductress Saboteur, Achilles Ridgerunner, Abberants
5: T’au Empire (+10)
Win Rate - 13 (47.6%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #8 (0.89x)
Event Wins - #4 (3 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #4
If there’s one army that really didn’t need points drops, Tau were top of my personal list. Crisis Suits are one of the most eminently buffable units in the game and getting more of them in helps to slow the bleed that the army traditionally suffers to Hazardous, and fitting in a few more scoring units like Kroot Hounds or a Ghostkeel helps to keep the gap between their scoring and the opposing Bring it Down count to a manageable level (or punish the second choice like Teleport Homers). Nightspinners remain a very real problem for Tau with the ability to cripple their Advance and Shoot, but clever Ingress / Deep Strike plays can give the Tau player every opportunity in any matchup.
Key Units - Crisis Suits, Broadsides, Tetras, Ghostkeel, Stealth Suits, Shadowsun, Farsight, Coldstar Commander, Piranhas
6: Thousand Sons (-3)
Win Rate - #6 (51.2%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #4 (1.14x)
Event Wins - #4 (3 Wins)
While the Battle Tactics changes hurt many armies, Thousand Sons losing the ability to use indirect shooting for free, while also catching some rough points changes have pushed this faction significantly down, with room to fall. Rhinos, Magnus, and Rubrics remain completely viable datasheets, but the environment has moved a bit past them. Devastating Wounds is another particularly notable shift for the faction which loses a lot of its mass model killing potential as a result.
Key Units - Magnus the Red, Rubric Marines, Scarab Occult Terminators, Mutaltith Vortex Beast, Infernal Master, Sorcerer, Exalted Sorcerer, Rhino, Tzaangor Enlightened
7: Leagues of Votann (+13)
Win Rate - #9 (50.6%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #16 (0.66x)
Event Wins - #9 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #4
Sagitaur also join the “why did this unit need to go down in points?”. Votann with the changes to Judgement Tokens (allowing you to hand out 4 at the start of the game) has given the army a lot more agency when it comes to generating the 2 or 3 additional Command Points to fuel their very useable stratagem suite. With a reasonable amount of flexibility to adapt to the metagame with either more Deep Striking / Ingressing threats with Devastating Wounds for the deathstars out there, Brokyr with or without ignore modifiers for the Vehicle threats while toting Grav, or Pioneers for more scoring theres an option for almost any occasion. The now cheaper Sagitaur also helps cover the bases with the expensive troops by splitting them in two giving you a reasonable bang for your buck of OC2.
Key Units - Einhyr Hearthguard, Sagitaur, Brokhyr Thunderkin, Hernkyn Pioneers
8: Adeptus Astartes (+3)
Win Rate - #18 (44.8%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #6 (0.97x)
Event Wins - #2 (7 Win)
Contributor Voting - #8
Space Marines are about to undergo a sea change with the loss of the Wound Rerolls on oath of moment, but for a minute there we saw marines really start to perform in the hands of the best players with an almost even Overrep and 7 Event wins putting them almost in spitting distance of Eldar for the month. Aggressors with the Apothecary Biologis, Black Templars, Deathwing Knights. Even Blood Angels with Death Company. Theres’s been a lot of ways to approach the faction that it maybe took losing Desolation Marines to really look for. Deathwatch fell off a cliff in playrate with the changes to their Ammunition, but actually brought in a reasonable winrate and even some event wins.
Marines are going to change a lot with the new codex, so it’s hard to use this information going forward, but marines end the index phase as an interesting and seemingly well rounded army.
Key Units - Sword Brethren, Inceptors, Scout Snipers, Roboute Guilliman, Deathwing Knights, Helbrecht, Aggressors, Land Raider Redeemer, Redemptor Dreadnought, Whirlwind, Gladiators
=9: Necrons (-5)
Win Rate - #7 (51.0%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #17 (0.54x)
Event Wins - #4 (3 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #9
A new dawn for Necrons came with the Devastating Wounds changes. Suddenly Necron Warriors (fresh off a points reduction) were the hottest game in town. Unfortunately for Necrons, when Warriors are good everyone starts looking at that 2+ save model that can hold them forever, or the juicy +4 Blast that they offer you, and units that scrape them off the table and into the bin start showing up everywhere. While Necrons remain reasonably viable into some of the top armies. the change in the way that top armies are built to beat them has resulted in a metagame that’s just a little too hostile. The scoring and raw resilience remains high, but points changes to the damage output units have put a dampener on the faction going forward. There’s still plenty of tools here for the savvy player. Consider Cutting your C’tan if there are lots of Night Spinners in your local environment and save yourself the heartbreak.
Key Units - Lychguard, Cryptothralls, Canoptek Reanimator, Overlord, Technomancer, Necron Warriors, Lokhust Heavy Destroyer, Hexmark, Transcendent C’tan
=9. Tyranids (-1)
Win Rate - #4 (51.5%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #11 (0.83x)
Event Wins - #9 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #11
The first faction to get a Codex, we’ve seen a widening of options for Tyranids, but not so much a deepening. With a top 5 winrate, the faction clearly has a good amount going for it, but some rough points changes with the Codes > Munitorum Field Manual we’re not quite seeing a fix on exactly where Tyranids are landing. Synaptic Nexus and Invasion Fleet both support the Exocrine and Maleceptor’s very pushed datasheets and the Neurolictor fits in very well in supporting their scoring and damage output, while Vanguard Onslaught offers coinflips galore. Got a strong back? 100 Gaunts is there for you and seems incredibly viable.
Key Units - Exocrine, Maleceptor, Trygon, Zoanthropes, Biovores, Gargoyles, Termagants, Lictor, Hive Tyrant, Old One Eye, Neurolictor, Deathleaper, Pyrovore
11: Orks (-3)
Win Rate - #11 (49.1%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #14 (0.71x)
Event Wins - #6 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #10
Not a tonne has changed for Orks - with very little being adjusted in the slate. The general lowering of lethality (only a little) in the game has definitely helped here. There’s a little less all in trukk rush now, and a little more MSU and/or Squighog Boys. The Nobz unit with Power Klaws has grown in popularlity, and the usual MSU garbage of Gretchin, Stormboys etc proves just as capable of racking up tactical cards or Cleanse and Deploy Teleport Homers as ever,
Key Units - Flash Gitz, Trukk, Beast Snaggas, Mozrog, Squighog Boys, Beastsnagga Boys
12: Astra Militarum (-2)
Win Rate - 16 (46.1%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #7 (0.93x)
Event Wins - #9 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #13
Guard continue to not change a tonne. Indirect copped some small changes and there\s been some more exploration of the bigger tanks especially with Towering leaving the building that opens up space for Leman Russes and Rogal Dorns. Sentinels continue to be a strong carry unit for the faction, with recursion and good push pressure. There’s still the strong issue with units behind walls if you lean away from the now very expensive indirect, but enough for a middle of the pack faction for sure.
Key Units - Ursula Creed, Lord Solar Leontus, Basilisk, Manticore, Scout Sentinel, Gaunt’s Ghosts, Hellhounds, Leman Russ Demolisher (other Variants may apply)
13: Adeptus Custodes (-8)
Win Rate - #8 (50.7%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #13 (0.72%)
Event Wins - #8 (2 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #16
Custodes free fall all the way down to.. just about balanced? It turns out that losing the ability to double up on -1 Damage and Fights First, as well as some points and unit size changes have put the golden boys somewhere near the middle of the pack. The forced Multiple Small Units approach of the new list design definitely changes the dynamic of the army, and units like Saggitarum and Venetarii are seeing a little more experimentation going forward. Losing Exaction Squads doesn’t hurt as much here as they have the Prosecutors and Voidsmen to fall back on. Custodes definitely feel a lot of the nerfs this slate, but seem to be doing just fine if a little unexciting as a result.
Key Units - Allarus Terminators, Wardens, Custodian Guard, Blade Champion, Shield Captain, Caladius, Callidus Assassin
14: Adeptus Mechanicus (-2)
Win Rate - #15 (47.1%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #2 (1.73x)
Event Wins - #15 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #18
Maintaining their spot in the middle of the pack, there aren’t a tonne of Adeptus Mechanicus players out there but they’re just having the best time with the second highest overrepresentation going. A resilience increase as well as some aggressive points reductions on their battleline allows the heavily synergy ridden units of the faction to fire on all cylinders. With higher play rate and consideration from the rest of the meta would the faction fall? Maybe, but that isn’t the world we’re living in for the time being.
Key Units - Kataphron Breahchers, Skorpius Disintegrators, Tech-Priest Manipulus, Corpuscarii, Ironstriders. Rangers, Vanguard
15: World Eaters (+4)
Win Rate - #14 (47.4%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #20 (0.36x)
Event Wins - #15 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #10
Kill. Maim. Score? That doesn’t sound right. World Eaters might not be able to convert an event win (or hardly any top 4s), but they’ve certainly captured the hears and minds of their community. With some very reasonable points changes and a friendly metagame, World Eaters rush has started to see some success. The sheer speed and honestly very reasonable resilience of one of the few armies with a real melee profile is something to behold with the jank of the 10th edition fight phase. Eightbound, Berserkers in Rhinos and Angron infinitely respawning (if you’re good enough at dice) it turns out, do a faction make.
Key Units - Angron, Eightbound, Exalted Eightbound, Kharn, Lord Invocatus, Master of Executions
16: Grey Knights (+2)
Win Rate - #18 (44.8%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #10 (0.84x)
Event Wins - #15 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #14
Adding two extra scoring units and losing Exaction Squads has done about exactly as much as we thought it would for the 2 or 3 Terminator Bricks. You can now squeeze in some actual Grey Knight scoring, or some damage in the form of Librarians, but it hasn’t overly moved the Needle for them, remaining in the bottom half of armies. High skill execution and limited power very rarely makes for a popular combo.
Key Units: Brotherhood Terminators, Paladins, Draigo, Strike Squads, Brotherhood Librarian
17: Imperial Knights (-12)
Win Rate - #10 (49.4%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #18 (0.44x)
Event Wins - #9 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #20
Oh how the Mighty Fall. One might think that Bondsmen not applying to Questoris Knights, and Towering Changes might be too much for a faction to remain at the top, and one would absolutely be right. While the win rate hasn’t fallen too far, that Overrep of .44x tells all. Imperial Knights have fallen right back into Gatekeeper Status, where it seems likely they’ll stay unless something changes. While some big knights like the Gallant appreciate the ability to hide, for the army as a whole it’s not left a whole lot of space to play with. Then you consider that the army lost the ability to overwatch on any unit that basically had a reason to use the stratagem? Not a lot of room for experimentation. Lists comprised of mostly Armigers seems to be the way to look now?
Key Units - Armiger Warglaive, Canis Rex?
18: Chaos Daemons (-8)
Win Rate - #12 (48.8%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #21 (0.31x)
Event Wins - #15 (0 Wins)
Contributor Voting - #15
If you nerf all the big daemons and half the reasons to play Be’Lakor (Titanic shooting you in the face t1), what you end up left with is an army that has some great scoring options attached to units that don’t do very much and overcosted heavy hitters with nothing to replace them. It’s bad enough that most good Daemons lists seem to just be face tanking the points hit to Shalaxi and wishing they could have a second. Daemons are just not converting event wins or top 4s, even if they have a decent winrate floor. This mostly seems to be off the back of solid scoring and 3” deep strikes.
Still busted allies for the rest of Chaos though!
Key Units - Be’Lakor, Shalaxi, Lord of Change, Kairos Fateweaver, Nurglings, Flamers, The Changeling, Bloodthirster
19: Death Guard (+2)
Win Rate - #18 (45.9%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #12 (0.78x)
Event Wins - #15 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #17
Its wonderful to see the winrate for Death Guard be 18th with a 45.9% winrate. Seeing one of the weakest factions (some of this data is pre slate remember) be within the goldilocks zone of 45-55% winrate gives us a lot of hope going forward. New lists like Plague Marine rush have opened up a lot of dimensions to Death Guard’s play, and the newly pointed units have allowed more experimentation with Deep Strike threats and the power of things like Mortarions aura with Plagueburst Crawlers. If you want to surprise someone, try out the Biologis Putrifier Quad Grenade combo to really ruin the day. This is what the weakest factions by stats in the game should look like. Interesting with limited but existing options. Someone has to be at the bottom, and it’s not even unreasonable to expect good results from Death Guard.
Key Units - Mortarion, Deathshroud Terminators, Plagueburst Crawler, Plague Marines, Biologis Putrifier
20: Adepta Sororitas (-2)
Win Rate - #20 (41.8%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #15 (0.7x)
Event Wins - #15 (No Wins)
Contributor Voting - #18
Arco Flagellants are one of the best datasheets in the game and you can only spend 390pts on them. After that you’re stuck with the rest of the sisters roster which is a little lacking in Depth. Points changes have given some allowance here, and the winrate is on the upward trend, but it’s still a ways off threatening for top spots.
Key Units - Paragon Warsuits, Morvenn Vahl, Exorcists, Penitent Engines, Arco-Flagellants, Seraphim, Triumph of St Katherine
21: Drukhari (-4)
Win Rate - #21 (40.1%)
Overrepresentation in top 4s - #19 (0.43x)
Event Wins - #9 (1 Win)
Contributor Voting - #21
Here lies Drukhari. They were nerfed for Eldar’s sins. Poor Ravagers. Poor Scourges. None of you deserved this.
Key Units - Ravagers, Scourges, Mandrakes, Lelith Hesperax, Cronos, Voidraven Bomber
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That’s it for this month. We saw a tonne of movement and a lot of new armies entering the wider meta conversation as well as new lists for the ones that were already good. Moving into next month we have the Marines codex to look forward to for its impact on the last few weeks of data. as well as the settling in before the World Championships.
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